The hottest new housing loan policy is difficult t

2022-08-14
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The new deal on housing loans is difficult to boost market confidence. Real estate enterprises can only exchange volume with price

the new deal on housing loans is difficult to boost market confidence. Real estate enterprises can only exchange volume with price

October 21, 2014

[China paint information] on the eve of the national day, the notice of the central bank and the CBRC on adjusting housing loans is considered to be a large-scale real estate rescue policy. Many real estate enterprises even expect the "National Day" golden week holiday, and the market is expected to usher in a small upsurge in house purchase

however, data from various parties show that due to the impact of the general trend of real estate, this year's golden week property market is not as prosperous as it used to be

according to the report of the China Index Research Institute, on October, the cumulative transaction area of the 20 major first and second tier cities monitored by the China Index fell by 9.7% year-on-year and 6% compared with the same period in 2012. The number of first tier cities fell across the board

at the same time, inventories in many places have continued to exceed the highest level since 2014, and inventories in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanjing and other places have remained at high levels since 2010

based on the views of all parties and the reaction of the market, the sluggish trading volume may improve in the future, but the trend of house price adjustment is difficult to change. The increase of sales volume in the short term still depends on the price reduction of enterprises. The new housing loan policy will boost the short-term sales and market confidence of real estate, but it is difficult to reverse the structural downward trend of the real estate industry

transactions in first tier cities fell across the board

according to the report of the China Index Research Institute, from October 1 to 7, the cumulative transaction area of the 20 major first and second tier cities monitored by the China Index fell by 9.7% year-on-year and 6% compared with the same period in 2012

from the perspective of daily average trading volume of specific cities, compared with the daily average level of the same period in 2013, only 6 of the representative cities increased year-on-year. In order to improve vehicle fuel efficiency and reduce pollution, Harbin increased the most, with a year-on-year increase of 70.79%, and Chengdu and Wuhan also increased by more than 20%; Among the cities with year-on-year decline, Hefei and Xiamen fell by more than 60%

first tier cities declined across the board. Data show that during the "October 1" golden week this year, the average daily turnover of commercial residential houses in Shanghai was less than 100 houses, which was significantly lower than the average daily turnover of 120 units in the same period last year, the lowest in recent three years

the total volume of transactions during the National Day holiday is less than the single day trading volume of the two days before the national day. According to Sohu Focus real estate data, 637 commercial residential units were sold in Shanghai during the "October 1" golden week. The transaction area was 69700 square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.1%. The national standard gb/t 9341 ⑵ 000 describes in detail the steps of the experiment, which is the lowest level since 2012. Compared with the trading volume in the last week of September, it plummeted by 66.4%; The average transaction price was 25451 yuan/square meter, an increase of 11.38% compared with the same period last year, the highest in the history of the same period

during the National Day holiday, the transaction volume of Beijing property market fell by 40%. According to the latest statistical data released by Zhongyuan Real Estate Market Research Department, from January to September 2014, the market turnover of new commercial housing (excluding affordable housing) in Beijing was 118.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36% compared with 184.426 billion yuan in the same period in 2013. Compared with the same period in 2013, the trading volume of the seven day National Day holiday decreased by 40% year-on-year

in Guangzhou, according to Fang Wang's statistics, during the National Day golden week, 476 first-hand residential units were signed in 12 districts (counties) of Guangzhou, down 41.7% from the same period last year; The transaction area was 57886 square meters, down 36.4% year-on-year. From a regional perspective, Conghua (county-level city) ranks first in the trading volume of 124 sets, with a transaction area of 16707 square meters and an average price of 7786 yuan/square meter; The second is Zengcheng (county-level city), with 115 signed sets, and the average transaction price is 9874 yuan/square meter. Only 100 sets were signed in the six central districts of Guangzhou, more than half of which were in Baiyun District

during the National Day holiday, commercial housing transactions in Shenzhen were also light. According to the official data of Shenzhen Municipal Commission of land and urban planning, from October 1 to October 7, only 139 commercial housing units were sold in Shenzhen, a year-on-year decline of 46%

although the first tier cities fell across the board compared with the daily average level of the "Golden Week" in 2013, the China Index Research Institute reported that 12 of the second tier representative cities rose, with Harbin and Sanya rising more than twice. Although compared with the average daily transaction level in September this year, the average daily transaction volume of the representative cities fell across the board, compared with the average daily transaction level during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday this year, the transaction volume of Changsha, Wuhan, Nanjing, Guiyang and Wenzhou still increased

destocking is still the primary task

however, before the "National Day" holiday, the relaxation of the central bank's loan restriction policy did inject some vitality into the anxious real estate market. During the National Day golden week after the relaxation of the housing loan policy, the Shanghai "October 1st" Housing Exhibition was held in the Shanghai Exhibition Center. Public data showed that 35000 visitors visited the exhibition on the first day, and the four-day exhibition attracted more than 120000 visitors, more than 110000 in the same period last year

the marketing director of a real estate project in central Shanghai said that during the National Day holiday, the newly launched houses had a removal rate of half. "Many people who come to buy houses are in need of improvement. Originally, because of the restrictions on the second set of housing loans, now the loans have been liberalized, and many people are beginning to worry about the uncertainty of the next house price. At this time, it is easy to make a decision to buy a house. Customers who come to see the market can easily see that they are very nervous that the house price will rise. Unlike the previous psychology of 'wait and see', the number of visits is also much higher than before, and generally the success rate of signing a contract is very high." The average price of the building is 31000 yuan/square meter

according to the survey of the top ten mainstream real estate enterprises conducted by Yihan think tank, during the National Day holiday, the number of calls and visits increased by more than 20%, and the conversion rate increased to 8% - 10%; Investment improvement customers have increased significantly, accounting for about 20%, but the wait-and-see mood has not been removed. The conclusion of Yihan think tank's research is that the sales of enterprises in October may increase by more than 20% compared with September, and individual enterprises are expected to increase by 30% to 40% month on month

Zhongjin real estate analyst tranquility whip even predicted that the central bank's easing of credit is expected to bring a recovery of 10% - 20% of short-term housing demand, which will help narrow the gap between supply and demand

however, according to luwenxi, manager of Shanghai Centaline real estate research and consulting department, "the new credit policy gives real estate enterprises hope, but the increase in sales in the short term still depends on their price reduction." For a large number of listed real estate enterprises with poor sales progress, it is a necessary choice to "exchange price for volume" in the fourth quarter with the help of favorable policies

Yan Yuejin, a researcher at Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, believes that from the current specific marketing situation in major cities, the price for volume strategy will continue to be implemented

"For real estate enterprises, when the policy is basically stable, two variables need to be considered: the decision-making of property buyers and the strategy of real estate enterprises in horizontal competition. At present, property buyers still hope to have a price discount, so real estate enterprises have to follow the minds of such interested property buyers and do not take the initiative to increase the price. From the perspective of the strategy of real estate enterprises in horizontal competition, no real estate enterprise will choose the electronic pull machine policy with high practicality because of how to choose it Relax and take the lead in raising prices, because rising prices will cause the loss of customers. " Yan Yuejin said

Zhang Hongwei, director of Tongce consulting and research department, pointed out that the deep-seated reason why real estate enterprises continue to "exchange price for volume" is that most urban real estate markets still face the heavy task of "de Stocking"

"from the inventory sales ratio index of 36 large and medium-sized cities in September, the majority of cities still have high inventory pressure, market de stocking cycle of more than 15 months, and poor market fundamentals, such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dalian, Qingdao, etc." Zhang Hongwei said

according to the "real estate market transaction intelligence of major cities in China in the third quarter of 2014" released on October 8, as of the end of September 2014, the inventory of major cities monitored by the central index increased by 5.65% month on month, continuously breaking the highest level since 2014, and the inventory of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanjing and other places remained at the high level since 2010

the inventory volume of first tier cities increased significantly month on month, with the increase of saleable area in Shenzhen reaching 26.05% and that in Guangzhou reaching 11.74%. Among the second tier cities, inventory in Nanjing also increased by 10.33%, while Hefei and Nanchong exceeded 8%. In September, under the original high inventory base, real estate enterprises still increased their sales, and the saleable area of cities continued to rise. A large number of inventory pressures are testing the actual effectiveness of the new deal

the weakness of real estate may continue until 2015

although before the national day, the central bank relaxed the conditions for the issuance of mortgage loans, which injected a "shot in the arm" into many real estate enterprises, and there are even rumors that some real estate enterprises are brewing price increases

S & P rating believes that China's residential real estate sales will not rebound immediately. S & P said that in the oversupply market, many potential home buyers may wait for house prices to fall further. However, mortgage relaxation may boost housing demand in the next two years

"we believe that the real estate industry will continue to decline as buyers continue to wait and see as they expect house prices to fall further. But in the long run, the recent policy of the central bank is a big step forward. This will expand the range of home buyers who meet the conditions of preferential mortgage loans and should help release suppressed demand. This is also in line with our view that the Chinese government will continue to support the healthy development of the real estate industry." Fu Bei, a credit analyst at S & P, told the times weekly

not long ago, S & P released the report "with the loss of growth momentum, the credit risk of Chinese real estate developers has increased", which said that the continued weakness of China's real estate market will weaken the credit status of Chinese real estate developers in the next few years, and cause the survival prospects of some weak real estate developers to be questioned. The report also pointed out that "on the whole, it is expected that the real estate sales in 2014 will decline by 5%"

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities in China, also said recently that the new housing loan policy will boost short-term sales and market confidence, but it is difficult to reverse the structural downward trend of the real estate industry

"we believe that the downward cycle of real estate is not over yet. The housing loan easing policy cannot fundamentally reverse the structural downward trend of the real estate industry, nor can it trigger a sharp rebound in the real estate market. From the fundamentals, 4 load the gantry framework (special configuration) For one thing, we still believe that the supply of real estate in China has continued to be higher than its rigid and improved demand; Investment demand increased significantly in the first two years, but structural changes in many supporting factors have begun to make it tend to decline. At the same time, the real estate industry is also restrained by the high inventory and the huge area under construction. We expect that after the short-term rebound brought by the new housing loan policy, real estate construction activities will further slow down, and this weakness will continue in 2015. " Wang Tao said

he also predicted that measures to stabilize growth would be further introduced. Before the end of the year, the benchmark interest rate, especially the loan benchmark interest rate, may be reduced at the beginning of next year at the latest

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